What is the outlook for residential REITs in 2024?
With healthy property fundamentals and a favorable interest rate environment, REIT fund managers expect the sector to deliver double digit returns this year.
The REIT sector had a rough start to 2024 with a -5.72% total return in January. Large cap REITs (-4.79%) outperformed their smaller peers in January. Micro cap REITs (-8.39%) averaged the steepest declines. Only 9.55% of REIT securities had a positive total return in January.
After lagging equities the past two years, REITs offer an attractive investment opportunity in 2024. The headwind of higher bond yields and central bank rate hikes is likely to abate and may turn into a tailwind if our view about an impending economic slowdown and decelerating inflation trends is correct.
Residential REITs provide consistent income and growth potential. March 20, 2024, at 4:33 p.m. There is more demand in the market than there is supply. As long as this imbalance continues residential real estate will be a sound investment.
As the REIT industry continues to evolve, its future growth prospects remain promising. According to the reports, the global REIT market is projected to reach a staggering $5.8 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.1% during the forecast period of 2023-2030.
“2024 shouldn't be any different as inflation trends continue to moderate, putting downward pressure on rates and providing a strong investment tailwind for publicly traded real estate.”
According to expert panelists at the recent Nareit REITworld annual conference, 2024 could be a year of opportunity for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). They added a note of caution, however, that there are still headwinds affecting investor perspectives on REITs and capital markets in general.
Bottom line. Investors eyeing REITs may find a potential recovery ahead. With rate cuts on the horizon, many publicly traded REITs have rebounded, and the industry as a whole seems well-poised for a recovery in the coming year.
Interest rate risk. The biggest risk to REITs is when interest rates rise, which reduces demand for REITs. 6 In a rising-rate environment, investors typically opt for safer income plays, such as U.S. Treasuries. Treasuries are government-guaranteed, and most pay a fixed rate of interest.
Retail real estate fundamentals are expected to remain strong due to the scarcity of new construction deliveries over the past decade. The industrial market is expected to remain healthy, with net absorption on par with 2023 levels.
What is the best time to buy REITs?
REITs historically rebound when interest rates pivot and have the potential for rent growth. Realty Income, Agree Realty, VICI Properties, Essential Properties Trust, and American Tower are strong picks for long-term growth and income.
REIT Stock Performance and the Interest Rate Environment
Over longer periods, there has generally been a positive association between periods of rising rates and REIT returns. This is because rising rates generally reflect improvement in the underlying fundamentals.
Interest Rates. During periods of economic growth, REIT prices tend to rise along with interest rates. The reason is that a growing economy increases the value of REITs because the value of their underlying real estate assets increases.
In general, REIT returns are more volatile than physical property (they trade on an exchange, after all). Equity REITs delivered five and 10-year compound annual returns of 3.45% and 6.59%, respectively, for the period ending March 31, 2024, as measured by the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index.
Are REITs Good Investments? Investing in REITs is a great way to diversify your portfolio outside of traditional stocks and bonds and can be attractive for their strong dividends and long-term capital appreciation.
The growing demand for retail space will drive the performance of retail REITs. In this article, we have handpicked four REITs that have outpaced the real estate market's growth on a year-to-date basis and are poised to continue their winning streaks in 2024.
In 2021 and 2022, amid a strong economy driven by cash-rich consumers, demand heavily outpaced supply across most sectors of commercial real estate. This spurred developers to start a huge slate of projects that began to come to market in 2023 and will continue over the course of 2024.
# | Name | M. Cap |
---|---|---|
1 | Prologis 1PLD | $96.26 B |
2 | American Tower 2AMT | $80.17 B |
3 | Equinix 3EQIX | $69.43 B |
4 | Welltower 4WELL | $55.75 B |
Bankruptcies are extremely rare in the REIT sector. After all, REITs are required to keep the bulk of their assets in physical properties, or debt backed by real estate. Most real estate tends to appreciate over time, and as long as it holds its value, a REIT can sell properties to pay down debt in a pinch.
How to Qualify as a REIT? To qualify as a REIT, a company must have the bulk of its assets and income connected to real estate investment and must distribute at least 90 percent of its taxable income to shareholders annually in the form of dividends.
Which REIT has the best returns?
Symbol | Fund name | 1-year return |
---|---|---|
BRIUX | Baron Real Estate Income R6 | 12.08% |
JABIX | JHanco*ck Real Estate Securities R6 | 11.07% |
RRRRX | DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Instil | 9.26% |
CSRIX | Cohen & Steers Instl Realty Shares | 9.84% |
Company (ticker symbol) | Sector | Dividend yield |
---|---|---|
Chimera Investment (CIM) | Mortgage | 14.3% |
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF) | Mortgage | 14.0% |
Two Harbors Investment (TWO) | Mortgage | 14.0% |
Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) | Mortgage | 13.8% |
But since REITs are invested in property, there's more protection against the horror show of having shares crash to $0. By law, 75% of a REITs asset must be invested in real estate. The market value of the property owned by the REIT offers a bit of protection, as long as the value of the property doesn't go to zero.
REITs. When interest rates are falling, dependable, regular income investments become harder to find. This benefits high-quality real estate investment trusts, or REITs. Strictly speaking, REITs are not fixed-income securities; their dividends are not predetermined but are based on income generated from real estate.
“REITs often structure buildings as separate financial entities. If they default on debt, creditors generally can foreclose on the building but have no recourse against the rest of the company … in this way, the loss incurred by the REIT is contained,” says Sharma.
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